Global fertilizer market under pressure: sulfur shortage and logistical disruptions
The global fertilizer market is experiencing a period of instability in 2026 due to raw material shortages, logistical problems and geopolitical risks. The main blow falls on phosphate fertilizers, ammonia, urea and potash, the prices of which continue to rise.
Import-dependent countries remain particularly vulnerable, in particular India and Brazil, where the reduction in fertilizer stocks is already affecting the agricultural sector.
Sulfur Shortage as a Key Factor in the Fertilizer Market
Sulfur is a critical raw material for the production of phosphate fertilizers (DAP, MAP, TSP). Due to supply disruptions, sulfur prices have exceeded $1,000 per ton (CFR Brazil), which is putting additional pressure on producers.
The main reasons for the shortage are:
- Disruption of logistics chains
- Rising transportation costs
- Geopolitical tensions
Logistical issues: the situation in the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key hub for global supplies, where serious risks are observed:
- increasing insurance rates for ships
- delays in maritime transport
- restrictions on the transit of raw materials
This directly affects the availability of sulfur and other components for fertilizer production.
Ammonia Market: Shortage and Prices
The ammonia market is showing signs of shortage:
- Taiwan: ~$850/t CFR
- Southeast Asia: over $700/t FOB
- Egypt - Europe: ~$895/t CFR
The limited supply is particularly felt in the East Suez region.
Urea: Overheated Market
Urea remains one of the hottest segments:
- Iran: ~$770/t FOB
- Europe: ~$850/t CFR
- USA (NOLA): ~$692/t FOB
India tenders 2.5 million tons
The key factor is not only price, but also availability and speed of delivery.
Potash Fertilizers (Potassium): Price Increase
The potash market is responding to the overall situation:
- Brazil: ~$445/t CFR
- Europe: ~$365/t
Further price increase is expected.
Impact on the agricultural sector and food security
Rising fertilizer prices and supply disruptions could lead to:
- increased costs for farmers
- reduced yields
- risks to global food security
Fertilizer market findings and outlook
The global fertilizer market will remain under pressure in the coming months. Sulfur shortages, logistical challenges and geopolitical factors will continue to impact prices.
If the situation worsens further, the following is possible:
- further increase in fertilizer prices
- shortages of certain products
- increasing pressure on the agricultural sector
