Global urea prices rise amid shortages and anticipation of tenders
Огляд світового ринку карбаміду – Фіксовані настрої зростають у ключових регіонах Міжнародний ринок карбаміду продовжує демонструвати посилення цінових сигналів, оскільки обмеження поставок та очікування щодо тендерів формують торговельні потоки. Хоча спотова активність залишається вибірковою в деяких регіонах, тенденція до зростання цін стає все більш помітною в кількох експортних центрах.
Middle East
Spot prices for granular urea rose to $445-455/t fob, from $435-450/t last week. Producers gradually raised their offers to $455-460/t fob, supported by expectations of a new Indian tender and demand from Australia. However, confirmed spot deals were limited. One cargo from Oman was reportedly sold at $448/t fob for March loading. Bids at $445/t fob in the region were rejected, reflecting a more hawkish stance from sellers. A single buyer was looking for 45,000 tonnes from Qatar to Thailand for shipment in mid-February.
Iran
Prices rose to $420-430/t fob on tight supplies. Pardis has announced new offers at $430/t fob for March loading, around $10/t higher than the last bid. Gas shortages continue to hold back production and Pardis is currently the only producer operating at around half capacity. Iran’s production losses since mid-December are estimated at at least 750,000 tonnes. Market participants expect a gradual recovery from the second half of February.
Egypt
Egyptian prices have strengthened again, rising to $480/t fob for European destinations. The higher range has been supported by expectations of deals being concluded under the NCIC tender in late January, although details remain unconfirmed.
India
The market remains tied to expectations of a new Indian import tender in the coming weeks, although no formal announcements have been made. Vessel nominations are progressing slowly under the NFL tender in early January. Contracts are currently in place for 15 vessels with a capacity of over 530,000 tonnes, totalling just under 972,000 tonnes, with loading due by 20 February.
Black Sea
Prices rose to $420-435/t FOB, supported by local demand and export netbacks to the US. At least one cargo of 30,000 tonnes is expected to be delivered to the US in February.
Brazil
Granular urea prices rose to $435-440/t CFR. Trading activity remained subdued, with buyers resisting offers above $450/t CFR. Availability concerns are pushing some buyers towards alternative nitrogen products. However, seasonal demand in the southern regions provides some basic support.
Conclusion
Global urea markets are gradually strengthening on the back of tight supply in key origin regions, pending tenders and stable demand in selected importing regions. While buyers remain cautious, sellers are gaining confidence, suggesting continued upward pressure on prices in the near term if supply constraints persist.
