Sowing season 2026 in Ukraine: saltpeter shortage threatens grain harvest losses
Factors affecting the 2026 sowing campaign
As Koval emphasized, the emergence of winter crops from wintering is one of the factors that may cause a change in the structure of sown areas.
Significant changes in the structure of sown areas should not be expected, but certain adjustments are possible. Their scale will depend on several factors, primarily on the results of wintering of winter crops, Koval noted.
"If, for example, a certain part of the winter rapeseed dies, and today in the southern regions there is information from individual enterprises that even the central part of the plant has frozen. Not the side leaves, but the central shoot. This means that, most likely, part of the sowing in these enterprises will be lost," Koval said.
About a third of the rapeseed crops are in the risk zone - where the snow cover is insignificant. Winter rapeseed has been sown on about 1 million 100 thousand hectares, Koval noted.
"If not all the rapeseed on a particular field freezes, but becomes sparser, then it can still be left, then fed, and then they will watch the weather, because reseeding will be more expensive," Koval noted.
Winter wheat is also exposed to certain risks at the moment. In the southern regions and in the south of the central regions, there is already a crust of ice, which makes it difficult for air to reach the plants and can lead to their damage. Thaws and night frosts also have a negative effect, Koval explained.
A serious shortage of ammonium nitrate is expected
Now the optimal solution would be to apply ammonium nitrate to the permafrost and ice, but it is not enough, there is a certain shortage. Therefore, we will have to wait, Koval noted.
Some farms that have formed reserves in advance have already started feeding or are planning it.
"According to market estimates, the shortage of ammonium nitrate is estimated at up to 70% of the need. Domestic chemical complexes do not have time to produce due to the energy crisis, the high cost of natural gas and its small quantity. And our import is closed for ammonium nitrate in ship loads. That is, the military has banned the import of ammonium nitrate to deep-sea ports because it is explosive," the expert said.
Therefore, we need to think about an alternative. One of the options could be impure nitrate, for example, limestone nitrate. It does not pose a threat.
According to the expert, it could be imported in good quantities, but it needs to be searched for on the market, whether it is still unoccupied.
"But time has already been lost, we need to make decisions very quickly and do something. We may miss the grain harvest without the necessary amount of mineral fertilizers in significant quantities - up to 10% or more, according to preliminary estimates," Koval said.
The grain harvest is expected to be approximately 50 million tons plus or minus. However, as Koval points out, there are certain reservations related to the overwintering of winter crops and the weather during the spring campaign.
In 2025, farmers harvested 57.6 million tons of grain, according to the Ministry of Economy.
In the event of winter wheat freezing, spring wheat can be sown - the harvest will be of lower quality, but acceptable. Similarly, winter barley can be sown with spring, even with a row-type seed drill.
If any barley or rapeseed crops are destroyed, they need to be recultivated and sown with another crop. Most likely, it will be corn, soybeans or sunflowers, Koval noted.
According to Koval, spring rapeseed is more risky and effective than winter, so it is sown much less: about 150-200 thousand hectares against 1.1 million hectares of winter.
Economic impact on sowing
Today, the economy has become very dependent on logistics. Which crop can be exported faster, easier and at the right market peaks, the agrarian will focus on.
"Right now in Ukraine, we are exporting about 25-30% less wheat to the domestic market compared to last year. There is a tendency to decrease. As of December 1, there was a 35% lag from last year, and the gross harvest was more or less the same this year and last. That is, we are lagging behind in tonnage, and this puts pressure on prices inside the country," said Koval.
Farmers who have warehouses are holding their grain, expecting better prices, but the war makes it risky - missiles have repeatedly hit warehouses.
Logistics, freight and insurance are becoming more expensive, prices within the country are falling, the movement of goods is narrowing, exports are lagging behind, so a difficult situation is developing on the eve of the spring campaign, Koval noted.
However, in his opinion, there will still be no significant structural shifts in the structure of sown areas.
Prices for the grain group - barley, wheat - are currently at a fairly low level, and there is no export movement in the Black Sea region, plus Russia is dumping prices in this region.
That is, very unfavorable conditions are developing, and logistics, freight, insurance and movement across the territory of Ukraine are also increasing. This is due to a shortage of personnel and transport. All this works against the farmer. It is especially difficult for micro, small and medium-sized producers, who have limited warehouses and a choice of crops, Koval noted.
"All this can negatively affect the economic efficiency of our current 2026/2027 marketing year," Koval said.
Ukraine has sown almost 6 million hectares of winter crops, and even with the crisis with mineral fertilizers, the wheat harvest will be about 20 million tons. If about 8-10 million tons are food crops, this will provide a supply of food wheat for about 2.5-3 years. That is, all these negative factors do not affect food security yet, Koval said.
However, according to him, this affects the economic stability and reproducibility of economic systems. That is, agricultural enterprises - small, medium, vertically integrated agricultural holdings, traders, suppliers of raw materials, components and material resources for the production of clothing, protective equipment.
"I think that, as we previously predicted, about 22-22.5 million hectares of land will be sown with various crops, including winter crops, which have already been sown," Koval concluded.
In 2025, the total sown area in Ukraine remained at the level of the previous year, amounting to over 23 million hectares.
National Bank's forecast for oilseeds
In its January inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine lowered its forecast for the 2026 harvest from 21.4 million tons to 20.9 million tons.
"Oilseed production will grow moderately in 2026–2028 (to 22 million tons at the end of the forecast period) against the backdrop of a gradual improvement in productivity in the industry, but it will be held back by climate change in the southern regions, exacerbated by the consequences of the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, as well as security risks," the National Bank document states.
Last year, the agro-industrial complex provided up to 55% of Ukrainian exports, and the industry's total foreign exchange earnings exceeded $22 billion.
