Nitrogen, energy and war: what really drives the global fertilizer market

We are entering a phase where the fertilizer market is no longer about agriculture. It is about geopolitics, energy, logistics, and risk. (I know I’ve said it before—but it bears repeating.)

Look at the map.

Venezuela—sanctions, oil, political instability. And yet, paradoxically, this could lead to lower oil prices in the future.

Iran—riots, pressure, sanctions, gas being diverted to heating homes. No gas means no ammonia. No ammonia means no urea. And don’t forget sulfur.

Israel—risk of escalation. Egypt depends on gas from Israel’s Leviathan field.

Red Sea, Suez, Persian Gulf—war risk premiums. One missile in the region adds tens of dollars to freight traffic overnight.

The Arctic and the Greenland debate are no longer about politics. It’s about future LNG routes, new ports, and control over raw material flows.

Russia — sanctions, shadow fleet, new routes, new payment schemes. Businessmen disappear. Diplomats die. Insurance premiums rise.

This is energy history. Shipping history. Geopolitical history. Farmers need nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. But for them to appear, the world doesn’t have to explode along the way first.

Welcome to the new normal.